Drought is an extended period of unusually dry weather when there is not enough rain. The lack of precipitation can cause a variety of problems for local communities, including damage to crops and a shortage of drinking water. These effects can lead to devastating economic and social disasters, such as famineforced migration away from drought-stricken areas, and conflict over remaining resources. 

Because the full effects of a drought can develop slowly over time, impacts can be underestimated. However, drought can have drastic and long-term effects on vegetation, animals, and people. Since 1900, more than 11 million people have died and more than 2 billion people have been affected by drought. Drought is also one of the costliest weather-related disasters. Since 2014 California has lost at least 2 billion-dollars a year, due to drought.

Defining Drought

Drought is a complicated phenomenon, and can be hard to define. One difficulty is that drought means different things in different regions. A drought is defined depending on the average amount of precipitation that an area is accustomed to receiving. 

For example, in Atlanta, Georgia, the average rainfall is about 127 centimeters (50 inches) a year. If significantly less rain falls, there may be water shortages and a drought may be declared. However, some arid regions, such as the deserts of the American Southwest, may receive less than about 25 centimeters (10 inches) of rainfall in a non-drought year. A drought in Atlanta could be a very wet period in Phoenix, Arizona!  

Determining the start of a drought can be tricky. Unlike many natural hazards that bring about sudden and dramatic results—such as earthquakes, tornadoes, and hurricanes—the onset of a drought can be gradual and subtle. It can take weeks, months, or even years for the full effects of long-term inadequate rainfall to become apparent. 

The end of a drought can also be difficult to determine. While a single rainstorm will provide short-term relief from a drought, it might take weeks or months before levels of precipitation return to normal. The start and end of a drought are often only clear in hindsight.

Causes of Drought

Most droughts occur when regular weather patterns are interrupted, causing disruption to the water cycle. Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns can cause storm tracks to be stalled for months or years. This disruption can dramatically impact amounts of precipitation that a region normally receives. Changes in wind patterns can also be disruptive to how moisture is absorbed in various regions. 

Scientists have found a link between certain climate patterns and drought. El Niño is a weather event where the surface water in the Pacific Ocean along the central South American coast rises in temperature. These warmer waters alter storm patterns and are associated with droughts in Indonesia, Australia, and northeastern South America. El Nino events keep climate scientists guessing, by occurring every two to seven years.

La Niña is the counterpart to El Niño, when the surface water in the Pacific Ocean along the coast of South America decreases in temperature. The cooler waters affect storm patterns by contributing to drier-than-normal conditions in parts of North and South America. El Niño and La Niña both usually last about a year. The effects of La Niña on weather patterns are often more complex than El Niño. Two of the most devastating droughts in the history of the United States—the 1930s Dust Bowl and the 1988 drought in the Midwest—are associated with the effects of La Niña.

There is still a lot of debate about the connection between drought and global warming, the current period of climate change. A 2013 NASA study predicts warmer worldwide temperatures will mean increased rainfall in some parts of the world and decreased rainfall in others, leading to both more flooding and more droughts worldwide. Other scientists question the prediction that there will be more droughts and believe global warming will create a wetter climate around the world.  

Impacts of Drought

Trees and other plants have adapted to withstand the effects of drought through various survival methods. Some plants (such as grasses) will slow their growth or turn brown to conserve water. Trees can drop their leaves earlier in the season to prevent losing water through the leaf surface. However, if drought conditions persist, much vegetation will die.

Certain plants have adapted so they can withstand long periods without water. Yuccas, for instance, have deep root systems that can seek out water with incredible efficiency. Cacti have spiny, hairy spines, spikes, or leaves that limit how much water they lose to evaporation. Mosses can withstand complete dehydration. Juniper trees can self-prune by steering water only toward the branches required for survival. Other plants only grow when there is enough water to support them. In periods of drought, their seeds can survive under the soil for years until conditions are favorable again.

However, many organisms cannot adapt to drought conditions, and the environmental effects of extended, unusual periods of low precipitation can be severe. Negative impacts include damage to habitats, loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, and an increased risk from wildfires. During the U.S. drought of 1988, rainfall in many states was 50 to 85 percent below normal. Summer thunderstorms produced lightning without rain and ignited fires in dry trees. In Yellowstone National Park 36 percent of the park was destroyed by fire. 

Drought can also create significant economic and social problems. The lack of rain can result in crop loss, a decrease in land prices, and unemployment due to declines in production. As water levels in rivers and lakes fall, water-supply problems can develop. These can bring about other social problems. Many of these problems are health-related, such as lack of water, poor nutrition, and famine. Other problems include conflicts over water usage and food, and forced migration away from drought-stricken areas. 

While drought is a naturally occurring part of the weather cycle and cannot be prevented, human activity can influence the effects that drought has on a region. Many modern agricultural practices may make land more vulnerable to drought. While new irrigation techniques have increased the amount of land that can be used for farming, they have also increased farmers’ dependence on water. 

Traditional agricultural techniques allow land to “rest” by rotating crops each season and alternating areas where livestock graze. Now, with many areas in the world struggling with overpopulation and a shortage of farmland, there is often not enough arable land to support sustainable practices. Over-farming and overgrazing can lead to soil being compacted and unable to hold water. As the soil becomes drier, it is vulnerable to erosion. This process can lead to fertile land becoming desert-like, a process known as desertification. The desertification of the Sahel in North Africa is partly blamed on a prolonged drought whose effects were intensified by farming practices that result in overgrazing.

Increased drought conditions in Kenya have been attributed to deforestation and other human activities. Trees help bring precipitation into the ground and prevent soil erosion. But in 2009, it was reported that one-quarter of a protected forest reserve had been cleared for farming and logging, leading to drought conditions affecting 10 million people around the country. 

Historical Droughts 

Scientists often study historical droughts to put modern-day droughts in perspective. Since our data from thermometers and rain gauges only goes back about 100 to 150 years, scientists must research paleoclimatology, the study of the atmosphere of prehistoric Earth. Scientists gather paleoclimatic data from tree rings, sediments found in lakes and oceans, ice cores, and archaeological features and artifacts. This allows scientists to extend their understanding of weather patterns for millions of years in the past. 

Analyzing paleoclimatic data shows that severe and extended droughts are an inevitable part of natural climate cycles. North America has experienced a number of long-lasting droughts with significant effects. It is thought that droughts brought about the decline of the Ancestral Puebloans in the Southwest during the 13th century, and the central and Lower Mississippian societies in the 14th to 16th centuries. 

In South America, massive migration out of the once-fertile Atacama Desert 9,500 years ago can be explained by the onset of extreme drought.

In Africa, the Sahel region experienced a dry period from 1400 to 1750 that radically altered the landscape. The water level in Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, for instance, fell so low that an entire forest grew on the lake’s edges. Today, visitors can still see the tops of trees growing out of the lake—where the water is now more than 15 meters (50 feet) deep. 

What scientists have learned by looking at Earth’s drought history is that periods of severe drought are a regular part of nature’s cycle. As devastating as droughts in the last century have been, they are considered relatively minor compared to the severity of earlier droughts that have lasted more than a century.

Major Droughts in the Past Century

The Dust Bowl of the 1930s is probably the most well-known drought experienced by the U.S. By 1934, 80 percent of the U.S. was struggling with moderate-to-severe drought conditions. The drought lasted nearly a decade and had devastating effects on crop production in the Great Plains. The combination of lack of rain, high temperatures, and strong winds affected at least 50 million acres of land. Massive clouds of dust and sand formed as unusually strong winds lifted the dry soil into the air. These clouds could block out the sun for days, giving the period the name “dust bowl.” In 1934, one dust cloud infamously traveled 2,414 kilometers (1,500 miles), from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. 

Mass migration was an indirect effect of the Dust Bowl. Farmers and their families were forced to migrate to other areas in search of work, and by 1940, 2.5 million people had fled the Great Plains. Of those, 200,000 moved to California. The influx of migrants into existing economies already strained by the Great Depression led to a rise in conflict, unemployment, and poverty.

In the 1950s, severe drought returned to the Great Plains and southwestern United States, affecting half of the continental U.S. Low rainfall and high temperatures caused the production of crops in some areas to drop nearly 50 percent. Hay became too expensive for ranchers, and they had to feed their cattle prickly pear cactus and molasses to keep them alive. By the end of the five-year drought in 1957, 244 of Texas’ 254 counties had been declared federal drought disaster areas.  

In the late 1980s, the U.S. experienced one of the costliest drought in its history. The three-year spell of high temperatures and low rainfall ruined roughly $15 billion of crops in the Corn Belt. The total of all the losses in energy, water, ecosystems, and agriculture is estimated at $39 billion. Federal assistance programs were able to help many farmers, but a longer-lasting drought would make it more difficult for the government to provide nationwide aid.

Droughts continue to affect the U.S. Texas has been suffering from drought since 2010, with 2011 ranking as the driest year in the state’s history. A September 2012 National Geographic magazine article called Texas “The New Dust Bowl.” By 2013, 99 percent of the state was dealing with drought.  

Australia is also a frequent victim of drought. The last decade has been especially severe, earning it the name The Big Dry or The Millennium Drought. Much of the country was placed under water restrictions, wildfires spread in the dry weather, and the water level in some dams fell to 25 percent.  In 2007, 65 percent of viable land in Australia was declared to be in a drought. The drought was officially declared over in April 2012.

Droughts that occur in the developing world can cause even greater devastation. The Sahel region in Africa, which includes eight countries, endured a series of droughts in the 1970s and 1980s where annual rainfall dropped by about 40 percent. In the early 1970s, more than 100,000 people died and millions of people were forced to migrate. Conditions continue to be critical in the area due to drought, overpopulation, failing crops, and high food prices. Drought emergencies for the region have been declared four times since 2000.   

The Horn of Africa, which includes the countries of Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Because almost 80 percent of the population is rural and depends on agriculture for food and income, famine often accompanies drought. 

Struggles for the region’s limited, remaining resources can lead to conflict and war. In 1984 and 1985, the Horn of Africa suffered one of the worst droughts of the 20th century. The U.N. estimates that in Ethiopia alone, 1 million people died, 1.5 million livestock died, and 8.7 million people were affected by the drought—including being hospitalized, forced to migrate, or forced to change professions. In Sudan, 1 million people died, at least 7 million livestock died, and 7.8 million people were affected. 

The cycle of drought-famine-conflict has persisted in the region, with drought conditions returning every few years since 2000. In 2006, drought affected 11 million people across the Horn of Africa, and the resulting crisis killed between 50,000 and 100,000 people and affected more than 13 million.  

Forecasting and Measuring Drought

Even though scientists are unable to predict how long a drought will last or how severe it will be, early warning systems and monitoring tools can minimize some of drought’s damaging impacts. There are a number of tools used to monitor drought across the U.S. Due to the limitations of each system, data from different sources are often compiled to create a more comprehensive forecast

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), developed in 1965 by the National Weather Service, is the most commonly used drought monitor. It is a complex measurement system and an effective way to forecast long-term drought. Its limitations are that it does not provide early warnings for drought and is not as accurate for use in mountainous areas because it does not account for snow (only rain) as precipitation. The PDSI is often used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to determine when to begin providing drought relief.

Information from the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is often used to supplement the PDSI data. The SPI, developed in 1993, is less complex than the PDSI and only measures precipitation—not evaporation or water runoff. Many scientists prefer using the SPI because the time period being analyzed can easily be customized. The SPI can also identify droughts many months earlier than the PDSI. The National Drought Mitigation Center uses the SPI to monitor drought conditions around the U.S.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, started in 1999, is a joint effort between three U.S. government agencies—the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Monitor synthesizes data from academic and federal scientists into a weekly map indicating levels of dryness around the country. It is designed to be a blend of science and art that can be used as a general summary of drought conditions around the country. It is not meant to be used as a drought predictor or for detailed information about specific areas.

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) monitors satellite data of crops and rainfall across Africa and some parts of Central America, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Analysis of the data allows for early intervention to try to prevent drought-induced famine.

Preparing for Drought

People and governments need to adopt new practices and policies to prepare as much as possible for inevitable future droughts. Emergency spending once a crisis has begun is less effective than money spent in preparation. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimates that every $1 spent in planning for a natural hazard will save $4 in the long term.  

Many areas are extremely vulnerable to drought as people continue to be dependent on a steady supply of water. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recommends a series of conservation practices to help farmers prepare for drought. Some preventative measures include installing an efficient irrigation system that reduces the amount of water lost to evaporation, storing water in ditches along fields, regularly monitoring soil moisture, planting crops that are more drought-resistant, and rotating crops to allow water in the soil to increase.

In urban areas, many cities are promoting water conservation by addressing water usage habits. Some enforce water restrictions, such as limiting days when lawns and plants can be watered, and offering free high-efficiency toilets and kitchen faucets.  

Some drought-ravaged cities are taking even more extreme measures to prepare for future droughts. In Australia, the city of Perth is planning for a massive wastewater-recycling program that will eventually provide up to a quarter of the city’s water demands by 2060. Perth has been dealing with a decline in rainfall since the mid 1970s. The city, which is on the edge of a huge desert, is also struggling with its history of over-consumption of water. Water-hungry traditions such as planting large, lush lawns and parks will need to be addressed through conservation measures. 

 

drought
A cracked, parched landscape is often an effect of drought.
Yunnan Drought
The ongoing drought in Yunnan Province, China, has forced some families to transport water from more than 10 kilometers (6 miles) away.
Drought in the USA
In August 2012, drought conditions extended over 70 percent of the United States. Counties in 33 states were designated “disaster counties” by the government. In the beginning of 2013, drought still affected more than 60 percent of the country.  
Dust Bowl
John Steinbeck’s 1939 novel The Grapes of Wrath describes the Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s: “Every moving thing lifted the dust into the air: a walking man lifted a thin layer as high as his waist, and a wagon lifted the dust as high as the fence tops, and an automobile boiled a cloud behind it. The dust was long in setting back again.”
Comparing Natural Disasters
 
  • 2004 tsunami in Indonesia: affected up to 5 million people
  • 2010 earthquake in Haiti: affected 3 million people
  • Current drought/famine/war in the Horn of Africa: affect 8 million people in 2018
academic
Adjective

person or thing having to do with school, particularly college or university education.

Noun

the art and science of cultivating land for growing crops (farming) or raising livestock (ranching).

Ancestral Puebloans
Plural Noun

(1200 BCE-1300 CE) people and culture native to what is now the southwestern United States. Also called Anasazi.

arable
Adjective

land used for, or capable of, producing crops or raising livestock.

Noun

material remains of a culture, such as tools, clothing, or food.

atmospheric circulation
Noun

large-scale movement of air that helps distribute thermal energy (heat) on the surface of the Earth.

Noun

all the different kinds of living organisms within a given area.

Noun

all weather conditions for a given location over a period of time.

Noun

gradual changes in all the interconnected weather elements on our planet.

compact
Verb

to pack tightly together.

complex
Adjective

complicated.

conflict
Noun

a disagreement or fight, usually over ideas or procedures.

Noun

management of a natural resource to prevent exploitation, destruction, or neglect.

Corn Belt
Noun

region whose economy is dominated by the agricultural production of corn. In North America, the Corn Belt sits between the Ohio and Missouri Rivers.

Noun

agricultural produce.

customize
Verb

to change or modify an object to a unique set of preferences.

dam
Noun

structure built across a river or other waterway to control the flow of water.

data
Plural Noun

(singular: datum) information collected during a scientific study.

Noun

destruction or removal of forests and their undergrowth.

dehydration
Noun

illness in which the body loses too much water.

Noun

area of land that receives no more than 25 centimeters (10 inches) of precipitation a year.

desertification
Noun

rapid depletion of plant life and topsoil, often associated with drought and human activity.

developing world
Noun

nations with low per-capita income, little infrastructure, and a small middle class.

disaster area
Noun

region that has been physically and economically damaged by a natural, technological, or social hazard.

disrupt
Verb

to interrupt.

drastic
Adjective

severe or extreme.

Noun

period of greatly reduced precipitation.

Noun

tiny, dry particles of material solid enough for wind to carry.

Dust Bowl
Noun

(1930-1940) term for the Great Plains of the U.S. and Canada when severe dust storms forced thousands of people off their farms.

earthquake
Noun

the sudden shaking of Earth's crust caused by the release of energy along fault lines or from volcanic activity.

economic
Adjective

having to do with money.

Noun

community and interactions of living and nonliving things in an area.

efficient
Adjective

performing a task with skill and minimal waste.

Noun

irregular, recurring weather system that features a warm, eastern-flowing ocean current in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Noun

act in which earth is worn away, often by water, wind, or ice.

Noun

process by which liquid water becomes water vapor.

famine
Noun

an extreme shortage of food in one area during a long period of time.

farmer
Noun

person who cultivates land and raises crops.

feature
Noun

non-portable archaeological remains, such as pyramids or post-holes.

federal
Adjective

having to do with a nation's government (as opposed to local or regional government).

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
Noun

U.S. Homeland Security agency responsible for coordinating response and aid distribution after natural and manmade disasters.

fertile
Adjective

able to produce crops or sustain agriculture.

Noun

overflow of a body of water onto land.

forced migration
Noun

the movement of people away from their homes due to political conflict, natural disaster or environmental hazard.

forecast
Verb

to predict, especially the weather.

forest
Noun

ecosystem filled with trees and underbrush.

frequent
Adjective

often.

Noun

increase in the average temperature of the Earth's air and oceans.

graze
Verb

to feed on grass, usually over a wide pasture.

Great Depression
Noun

(1929-1941) period of very low economic activity in the U.S. and throughout the world.

Great Plains
Noun

grassland region of North America, between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River.

Noun

environment where an organism lives throughout the year or for shorter periods of time.

hindsight
Noun

recognition of the importance, significant features, or realities of a situation after it has occurred.

Horn of Africa
Noun

large peninsula in northeast Africa, including the countries of Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. Also called the Somali Peninsula.

hurricane
Noun

tropical storm with wind speeds of at least 119 kilometers (74 miles) per hour. Hurricanes are the same thing as typhoons, but usually located in the Atlantic Ocean region.

ice core
Noun

sample of ice taken to demonstrate changes in climate over many years.

ignite
Verb

to set on fire.

inadequate
Adjective

not enough or not of high-enough quality.

inevitable
Adjective

certain to happen, unavoidable.

Noun

watering land, usually for agriculture, by artificial means.

Noun

the geographic features of a region.

Noun

sudden electrical discharge from clouds.

livestock
noun, plural noun

animals raised for sale and profit.

logging
Noun

industry engaged in cutting down trees and moving the wood to sawmills.

Middle East
Noun

region of southwest Asia and northeast Africa.

minimize
Verb

to make smaller.

MIssissippian
Adjective

(800-1500) having to do with a network of Native American cultures indigenous to the Mississippi Valley.

monitor
Verb

to observe and record behavior or data.

National Weather Service
Noun

branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) whose mission is to provide "weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy."

natural hazard
Noun

event in the physical environment that is destructive to human activity.

nutrition
Noun

process by which living organisms obtain food or nutrients, and use it for growth.

onset
Noun

beginning or start of something.

overgrazing
Noun

process of too many animals feeding on one area of pasture or grassland.

Noun

study of the atmosphere of prehistoric Earth.

phenomenon
Noun

an unusual act or occurrence.

poverty
Noun

status of having very little money or material goods.

Noun

all forms in which water falls to Earth from the atmosphere.

prune
Verb

to cut or trim branches from a tree, bush, or shrub.

rain gauge
Noun

device for measuring rain or other forms of liquid precipitation, usually in millimeters. Also called a precipitation gauge, udometer, pluviometer, or ombrometer.

resource
Noun

available supply of materials, goods, or services. Resources can be natural or human.

root system
Noun

all of a plant's roots.

Noun

overflow of fluid from a farm or industrial factory.

Sahel
Noun

transition zone in northern Africa between the Sahara Desert in the north and the savanna ecosystems in the south.

sand
Noun

small, loose grains of disintegrated rocks.

sediment
Noun

underwater soil.

severe
Adjective

harsh.

significant
Adjective

important or impressive.

soil
Noun

top layer of the Earth's surface where plants can grow.

stall
Verb

to cause to slow or come to a stop.

storm
Noun

severe weather indicating a disturbed state of the atmosphere resulting from uplifted air.

supplement
Verb

to increase or add to.

sustainable
Adjective

able to be continued at the same rate for a long period of time.

synthesize
Verb

to create or manufacture.

Noun

device that measures temperature.

thunderstorm
Noun

cloud that produces thunder and lightning, often accompanied by heavy rains.

tornado
Noun

a violently rotating column of air that forms at the bottom of a cloud and touches the ground.

tree ring
Noun

layered formation in the trunk of a tree that marks its growth at least once a year.

unemployment
Noun

state of not having a job.

Noun

developed, densely populated area where most inhabitants have nonagricultural jobs.

vegetation
Noun

all the plant life of a specific place.

vulnerable
Adjective

capable of being hurt.

war
Noun

large-scale armed conflict.

wastewater
Noun

water that has been used for washing, flushing, or industry.

Noun

movement of water between atmosphere, land, and ocean.

water shortage
Noun

reduction in the amount of fresh water available for drinking, hygiene, and industrial and agricultural use.

Noun

state of the atmosphere, including temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation, and cloudiness.

Noun

uncontrolled fire that happens in a rural or sparsely populated area.